The run line is baseball’s spread, almost always ±1.5. Extra innings count; most books require 9 innings (8.5 if the home team leads) and have special rules for 7-inning games. Edges often come from totals and home/road dynamics: low totals increase one-run outcomes (good for +1.5), and home favorites win by exactly one more often, making -1.5 less attractive at home than on the road. Crypto books can speed up bankroll moves—some cover blockchain fees—so line shopping across multiple operators is practical.
Run line 101: the quick definition and the fine print
The run line is MLB’s version of a point spread: the favorite is typically -1.5 and must win by two or more; the underdog at +1.5 can lose by exactly one or win outright. Extra innings are included in settlement.
Most house rules require a full 9 innings (or 8.5 if the home team is ahead) for run line and totals to have action, with exceptions specified for scheduled 7-inning games (e.g., doubleheaders). Check your book’s rules page before betting.
Where run line value really comes from
Totals drive one-run frequency
When totals are low, favorites win by exactly one more often, which increases the value of +1.5 and decreases the attractiveness of laying -1.5. This linkage between expected scoring and run-line pricing is well documented by market makers.
Home vs. road favorites
Because the home team does not bat if leading after the top of the ninth, home favorites win by a single run more often than visitors. That shaves expected coverage for -1.5 at home and nudges value toward visiting favorites on the -1.5 and home underdogs on +1.5.
First 5 (F5) run lines to isolate starters
If your edge is largely in the starting pitching matchup (or you want to reduce bullpen variance), the F5 run line markets settle after five complete innings and mirror full-game run line logic on a shorter horizon.
Alternate run lines (ALR) expand your toolkit
Books offer alternate spreads (e.g., -2.5 or +2.5). Moving off the standard ±1.5 changes price and risk—useful when your model projects wider margins or when you want extra protection.
Pricing and break-even math (fast and practical)
Convert decimal odds to implied probability with 1/odds. For -1.5 at 2.20 (+120 American), break-even ≈ 45.45%. For +1.5 at 1.67 (-150), break-even ≈ 59.88%. Compare your model’s cover probability to the break-even, factoring in that pushing is impossible on ±1.5. If you don’t model games, anchor to a sharp reference and adjust for totals and home/road context. For fundamentals and examples, see general run-line explainers.
House rules that affect your payout
Innings rules and extra innings
Run line markets typically require 9 innings (8.5 with a leading home team). Extra innings count fully. Scheduled 7-inning games use a “6.5-innings rule” for run line/totals action.
Listed pitchers vs. action
Some books offer “listed pitcher” (void if starters change) versus “action” (bet stands despite a change). Know your selection—pitcher swaps can move prices dramatically and change your EV.
Crypto rails: moving money fast enough to shop lines
One clear advantage of crypto books is bankroll agility—deposits and withdrawals are quick, and some operators now eat blockchain fees:
- Thunderpick states most withdrawals process in 5–30 minutes and says it covers blockchain transaction fees, so your payout isn’t reduced by gas.
- Sportsbet.io states it does not charge platform fees for crypto deposits/withdrawals (network/third-party fees may still apply).
- Stake publishes per-coin withdrawal fees and minimums—useful for choosing the cheapest rail for frequent transfers.
Faster, cheaper transfers make true line shopping practical—open multiple books, compare prices, and route your cash via the lowest-fee network your book supports. General line-shopping guidance consistently shows improved ROI over time.
A step-by-step run line playbook
- Filter by total and venue
Shortlist games with low totals for +1.5 consideration, and prefer road favorites (vs. home favorites) when laying -1.5. - Check house rules and pitcher statuses
Confirm 8.5/9-inning requirements and whether your bet is “listed pitcher” or “action” before limits hit. - Price the market
Convert the posted odds to break-even; compare against your projection (or a sharp reference adjusted for totals and home/road). - Consider F5 or ALRs
If your edge is starter-driven or you forecast a blowout/tight game, F5 and alternate run lines can align risk/reward better than the default ±1.5. - Execute with crypto line shopping
Use an operator that covers fees or charges low fixed network fees; keep small balances on a few books to capture brief price discrepancies.
Common mistakes (and quick fixes)
Mistake: Laying -1.5 with home favorites without accounting for the bottom-9th wrinkle.
Fix: Price in the one-run uptick for home favorites; prefer -1.5 on the road when prices are similar.
Mistake: Ignoring innings rules and 7-inning doubleheaders.
Fix: Verify the 8.5/9-inning or 6.5-inning conditions for action at your book.
Mistake: Overestimating bullpen reliability in full-game run lines.
Fix: If your edge is starter-heavy, use F5 run lines to reduce late-inning noise.
Mistake: Paying hidden fees on frequent cashouts.
Fix: Prefer books that don’t charge platform fees or that cover blockchain gas.
FAQ
Do extra innings count on run line bets?
Yes—extra innings count toward the run line. Books also apply 8.5/9-inning rules (or 6.5 on scheduled 7-inning games) for action.
Is +1.5 better in low-total games?
Often, yes. Lower expected scoring increases the chance of a one-run decision, raising the value of +1.5.
Why is -1.5 weaker for home favorites?
When the home team leads after the top of the ninth, the game ends, removing their chance to add insurance runs and increasing one-run wins.
Should I use First 5 run lines instead of full game?
Use F5 when your edge is mostly in starting pitchers or you want less bullpen variance.
