In 2025, the classic play-to-earn promise has splintered. Traditional P2E titles face consolidation and shutdowns, while activity clusters around three adjacent rails: tokenized casino loyalty economies, prediction-market style play, and “play-to-airdrop” campaigns. Together, these mechanics blur the line between gaming and gambling and are drawing more explicit regulatory scrutiny. Industry trackers report mixed fundamentals for Web3 gaming this year, even as prediction markets set volume records and move toward formal compliance in the U.S.
The market reality: P2E cool-down, new rails heat up
DappRadar’s mid-2025 reporting highlights a difficult quarter for blockchain gaming: multiple shutdowns, weaker user activity, and tighter funding. That contraction is forcing teams to pivot toward sustainable economics and stickier reward loops.
At the same time, “play-to-airdrop” has become a pragmatic rebrand of P2E: users complete in-game or on-chain tasks to earn points that convert to future token distributions, and prediction-style gameplay is increasingly used to drive engagement. This trend was already visible in 2024 research and remains influential in 2025 product design.
Where gambling mechanics meet P2E in 2025
Tokenized loyalty inside crypto casinos
Several leading crypto casinos run wallet-native loyalty programs with site tokens and “mining” mechanics that reward play, VIP progression, and staking-like yields. Independent reviews describe systems that let players earn or stake platform tokens for perks, reinforcing a loop that looks and feels like P2E but within a real-money casino context. Evaluate these as marketing economies layered on gambling, not as investment products.
Revenue-share and casino ecosystem tokens
Another strand is the emergence of casino-linked tokens that share revenue or embed buy-back/burn logic. Media analyses in 2025 discuss projects like Rollbit’s RLB in the context of casino revenues and token dynamics—illustrating how gambling platforms and token economies are co-evolving. Treat these tokens as high-risk exposures to a casino’s fortunes.
Prediction markets as “play to earn by being right”
Prediction markets—where users trade on outcomes of sports, politics, and culture—have exploded in volume. In 2025 Polymarket reported billion-dollar monthly volumes, and, crucially, secured a CFTC no-action pathway to re-enter the U.S. via an acquired, registered venue. This brings a class of “earn-by-predicting” gameplay closer to mainstream finance, even as critics continue to frame it as gambling.
What’s different from 2021’s P2E boom
Early P2E relied on reflexive token emissions and NFTs, which proved fragile when user growth slowed. In 2025, reward systems are being rebuilt around provable spend (casino play), measurable forecasting skill (prediction markets), or off-chain marketing goals (airdrops). Loyalty is also being reimagined as composable, wallet-native rewards that travel across partner ecosystems instead of living in a single game server.
The regulatory overlay you cannot ignore
If real-money outcomes are involved, gambling rules apply regardless of whether rewards are tokens, points, or fiat. In Great Britain, operators must be UK Gambling Commission-licensed and adhere to evolving AML and consumer-protection rules. That bar applies equally to crypto-accepting operators. Enforcement updates in 2025 show active supervision and penalties for non-compliance.
Loot box and chance-based rewards in traditional gaming remain a separate but relevant debate. UK policy has so far favored industry-led principles and transparency over categorizing loot boxes as gambling, though researchers and regulators continue to scrutinize harm and compliance. If your product crosses from virtual prizes into “money or money’s worth,” expect gambling rules to trigger.
In the U.S., prediction markets are moving toward clearer frameworks. Polymarket’s 2025 CFTC pathway via an acquired, licensed exchange is a watershed—signaling that some “play-to-earn by predicting” experiences may operate inside formal derivatives rules rather than in a legal gray area.
Risks unique to P2E-meets-casino models
Token price volatility can turn loyalty earnings into losses; casino-linked tokens are effectively levered bets on house activity. Staking, vault, or “yield” features inside casinos introduce counterparty and regulatory risk. And while many platforms advertise fast crypto payouts, players are still subject to KYC/AML checks and responsible-gambling controls in regulated markets.
Prediction-market users face event-resolution risk and contract delistings, along with jurisdictional access changes as rules evolve. Always confirm whether your region permits event betting and how disputes are handled before committing capital.
How to evaluate a P2E casino or prediction-style game
Product and economy
Read the token and points mechanics like a loyalty program: where does value originate, and who funds rewards? If earnings depend on new players or emissions, expect decay when growth slows. Cross-check activity data from independent analytics where available.
Licensing and compliance
Look for regulator pages, licence numbers, and responsible-gambling tooling. In GB, you can verify operators directly on the UKGC website. If a product touches real-money outcomes without matching licences, treat that as a red flag.
Data transparency
For prediction markets, inspect volume, open interest, and resolution sources. Third-party reporting on monthly volumes helps contextualize platform health and liquidity.
Builder’s corner: design patterns that don’t backfire
Points-to-airdrop funnels should avoid promising fixed yields or implying guaranteed profits. Casino-adjacent tokens should clearly separate loyalty perks from speculative investment claims. Where chance determines outcomes, age-gating, transparency of odds, and loss-limit tools are fast becoming table stakes under modern rulebooks.
FAQs
Is P2E “back” in 2025?
Not in its old form. Data shows many Web3 games have retrenched, while activity is coalescing around tokenized loyalty, prediction markets, and airdrop-driven quests. These are related to P2E but operate with different economics and regulatory footprints.
Are prediction markets gambling?
Views differ. Some regulators treat event-contract trading as financial derivatives under market rules rather than as gambling. In 2025, Polymarket secured a CFTC path to operate in the U.S. using a registered venue—an important precedent.
Do crypto casinos really offer “play to earn”?
They offer tokenized rewards and VIP programs that can feel like earning while playing, but the core activity is still gambling with a built-in house edge. Treat site tokens and vaults as loyalty mechanics with market risk, not guaranteed income.
What compliance checks matter most to players?
Verify licensing in your country, confirm KYC/AML requirements, and use safer-gambling tools like deposit limits or self-exclusion. In Great Britain, the UKGC hosts a licence checker and publishes rule changes and enforcement actions.
Sources and further reading
• DappRadar — State of Blockchain Gaming in Q2 2025; May 2025 games report.
• Crypto.com Research — New developments in GameFi: play-to-airdrop and prediction markets.
• Reuters — Polymarket receives CFTC green light to re-enter the U.S. in 2025; related coverage.
• The Block — Polymarket monthly volume data (June 2025).
• UK Gambling Commission — main site; new rules (2024) and AML risk updates (2025); enforcement news.
• Reviews citing tokenized loyalty in crypto casinos.
