Patches can swing win conditions overnight, so a team’s last ten results may say more about an old meta than the match you’re about to bet. League of Legends publishes detailed patch notes every two weeks or so; even minor balance changes can shift champion priority and objective rates. Track the current patch before you trust historical trends.
Dota 2 balance updates likewise reshape hero pools and lane tempo; following Valve’s patch notes keeps your read aligned with today’s game, not last month’s.
Build a reliable data stack (by title)
Counter-Strike 2 (CS2)
Use HLTV’s database for team pages and map stats. Look at map-level win rates, how teams perform after securing the opening kill, and whether results differ online vs LAN. HLTV’s maps and team pages also show “round win % after first kill”—a powerful signal for closing out man-advantage rounds.
Practical read: combine each side’s map pool with the likely veto to estimate map-by-map edges in a Bo3. HLTV’s map pages even include win-probability matrices by scoreline to sanity-check live bets.
League of Legends (LoL)
Oracle’s Elixir aggregates pro stats across LEC/LCK/LPL/LCS, including team objective rates (first blood, first tower, dragons, barons) and tempo metrics by tournament. These indicators feed markets like “first blood,” “first tower,” and match totals. The site also publishes analysis of first-blood trends at Worlds—useful context for early-game props.
Valorant
VLR.gg offers team pages with map win % and attacker/defender round win splits plus agent comps—ideal for Bo3 totals and map-moneyline modeling. Pull a team’s last 3–6 months and cross-check how their comp choices align with the opponent’s preferred maps.
Dota 2
Draft edges move lines. Dotabuff’s hero meta pages show pick and win rates across skill brackets and time windows; when major patches land, monitor shifts in top-tier hero efficacy to anticipate pro-priority changes. For pro roster moves and upcoming events, supplement with Liquipedia.
A simple pre-match workflow you can reuse
- Confirm the live patch and meta. If a fresh patch landed this week, assume model uncertainty is higher and size down. LoL and Dota 2 post official notes on their sites.
- Map or draft context. For CS2/Valorant, project the veto and compare each side’s map win % and side splits; for LoL/Dota, scan likely priority picks and objective control rates.
- Roster news and format. Check transfer portals and tournament pages (best-of-1 vs best-of-3 changes variance). Liquipedia maintains up-to-date transfer lists.
- Convert odds to fair probabilities before deciding stake. Remove the bookmaker margin (overround) and re-normalize. Pinnacle’s margin tools and primers are the industry standard reference for this math.
Turning odds into edges (basic but essential math)
Decimal implied probability is 1/odds. Books add margin so the two sides sum above 100%; divide each side’s implied probability by the total to get “fair” probabilities. Only bet when your number beats this fair probability by a meaningful buffer. Pinnacle’s margin calculator illustrates the process and reveals how much “vig” is baked in.
Market-by-market tips
Moneyline (match winner)
Blend long-horizon team strength with short-horizon meta fit. In CS2, a team with superior opening-kill conversion and a deeper map pool deserves a larger upgrade than a team merely riding a streak. In LoL, strong first-dragon and herald rates indicate repeatable early-game control that often converts to gold leads and win %—especially in best-of-1s.
Totals and “over maps”
Estimate each map’s win probability; in Valorant/CS2 Bo3s with even map pools and close teams, overs gain appeal because the most likely path involves trading map picks. Validate with each team’s map-specific win %.
Props (objectives/rounds)
LoL first blood/tower/dragon props correlate with objective rates and early-game ratings in the current patch window. For CS2 live markets, that HLTV “win % after first kill” informs comeback chances when you see early entry duels go a certain way.
Sample-size and context traps to avoid
Small windows lie. A 6–0 map record can hide weak opposition; expand the filter to 3–6 months and tag LAN vs online splits where available. Patch breaks create regime changes: treat “pre-patch” and “post-patch” stats separately when balance updates are significant. Use official notes for the date boundary.
Crypto-specific hygiene for bettors
Crypto deposits settle fast but are generally irreversible. If you mis-send or deposit to the wrong address, there’s no card-style chargeback; refunds depend on the other party. Factor this into bankroll moves and KYC/withdrawal planning.
In Great Britain, the Gambling Commission flags cryptoassets as high-risk for AML, and expects enhanced scrutiny from licensees. If you’re using crypto to fund play, prefer licensed operators that publish clear AML and verification controls.
Quick reference: trusted stat sources
- CS2 maps/teams and round-level indicators like “win % after first kill”: HLTV Stats.
- LoL team and tournament stats, objective rates: Oracle’s Elixir.
- Valorant team map stats and attacker/defender splits: VLR.gg team pages.
- Dota 2 hero pick/win rates by patch window: Dotabuff Meta.
- Odds math and margin removal: Pinnacle Margin Calculator.
A compact checklist before you bet
- Confirm the current patch and skim notes for role/agent/hero shifts.
- Check roster news and whether matches are online or at a LAN.
- For CS2/Valorant, model the veto and side bias via recent map stats.
- For LoL/Dota, scan champion/hero priority and objective rates on pro databases.
- Convert odds to fair probabilities; only stake when your edge clears the vig.
- Use small, fixed units; volatility and patches will humble any model.
