Executive Summary
Global growth remains positive but slower than 2024; the IMF’s July update puts 2025 at roughly 3.0% with 3.1% in 2026, while warning about tariff, inflation and geopolitical risks.
Markets are hyper-focused on the Fed’s Jackson Hole messaging and a potential autumn rate cut; stagflation chatter has risen even as indices hold up.
Flows are the headline: ETFs are pacing for a record year, with July inflows >$120B in the U.S., and active/intl ETFs gaining share.
Buybacks are boosting EPS math—S&P 500 Q1 repurchases set a quarterly record, with 2025 authorizations near all-time highs.
Leadership is broadening: Japan at record highs, India resilient despite valuations, while China’s property slump keeps a lid on risk appetite.
Macro & Policy Signals Marketers Should Track
The baseline: “tenuous resilience.” IMF nudged 2025 growth to 3.0% and sees inflation drifting lower globally, with U.S. inflation still sticky relative to target. Use this to frame rate-cut probabilities without over-promising.
Jackson Hole (Aug 21–23) sits at the center of the narrative. Markets are divided between soft growth data and persistent price pressure; preview notes emphasize the risk of disappointment if Powell leans cautious.
Stagflation anxieties are elevated in investor surveys, yet price action has been orderly—use neutral language: “hedging is up, positioning not panicked.”
Flows, Liquidity & Structure: What’s Actually Moving Money
ETFs remain the dominant wrapper in 2025. U.S. ETF assets neared $11.9T in July; monthly inflows of ~$116–121B put full-year flows on pace for a record ~$1.3T. For marketers, this favors simple, low-cost exposures and clear factor/sector theses.
Active ETFs are scaling in Europe and the U.S., with managers expanding ranges to meet demand. This supports storylines around “alpha in an index world.”
Spot crypto ETFs are now market-moving datapoints investors ask about: Bitcoin vehicles exceed ~$150B in U.S. AUM, and IBIT alone shows ~$88B AUM mid-August. Use them as a “risk sentiment” proxy, not an endorsement.
U.S. T+1 settlement (since May 2024) continues to reduce margin and settlement risk, a quiet structural tailwind for liquidity; SEC and industry data show lower daily margin and higher same-day affirmations.
Corporate buybacks: S&P 500 Q1 2025 set a fresh quarterly record (~$293.5B). Pair this with your earnings script to explain EPS support—without implying fundamentals are irrelevant.
Sector Tendencies Investors Will Hear About in 2025
AI Infrastructure & “Capex Supercycle”
Hyperscaler data-center capex is accelerating in 2025, a core bull case for semis, equipment, and power/thermal value chains. Analysts have raised 2025 capex growth estimates, reinforcing the “AI picks-and-shovels” narrative.
Healthcare: GLP-1 Ripple Effects
The GLP-1 race (Lilly/Novo) remains a defining health-care theme, with 2030 revenue potential estimates near $150B and fresh headlines on oral candidates and new indications (e.g., MASH). Expect cross-sector knock-ons in food, retail, and airlines coverage.
Defense & Aerospace
Geopolitical headlines are keeping defense bid; commentators highlight rising budgets and long order books—use measured language linking sector interest to persistent security tensions.
Housing & Homebuilders
Homebuilder equities rallied into Jackson Hole on hopes of policy easing and creative rate buydowns, but affordability and supply frictions remain—set expectations accordingly.
Energy & Commodities
Oil has drifted lower on easing supply-risk premium; macro and geopolitics will keep crude a key inflation “tape bomb.” Anchor claims to real-time pricing, not long-dated forecasts.
Regional Leaders & Laggards
Japan: Nikkei and Topix at record highs, helped by a weaker yen and corporate reforms—frame as “foreign flows plus earnings discipline,” while noting bank underperformance on rate jitters.
India: Consensus expects new highs into 2026 despite rich valuations; caveats include export-sensitive sectors and U.S. tariff overhang.
China: Property remains the swing risk; new-home and resale prices are still declining, keeping equities range-bound until stabilization measures gain traction.
Ex-U.S. rotation: Recent fund-flow data show investors reallocating toward Europe and EM on valuation and policy differentials—use this to explain “broadening leadership.”
Risks to Put on the Slide (Without Fear-mongering)
- Growth-inflation mix: If stagflation fears persist, multiples face pressure while rate-cut timelines slide. Hedge language, not doom.
- Policy path at Jackson Hole/FOMC: Market pricing can whipsaw on a single paragraph. Avoid calendar-dated promises.
- Tariffs & supply chains: IMF flags tariff uncertainty; keep cross-border exposure commentary grounded.
- China property loop: Prolonged housing weakness risks EM spillovers via commodities and sentiment.
Messaging Tips for Marketers & IR Teams
- Lead with the base case, cite the IMF. “Slower but positive growth; inflation easing; policy risk still live.” This builds credibility before your thesis.
- Show your flow map. Use the July ETF surge and active ETF momentum to explain why your vehicle/mandate fits 2025 behavior.
- Quantify buyback impact, don’t oversell it. Pair record Q1 repurchases with earnings quality and cash-flow coverage.
- Name the catalysts by sector. AI capex guides, GLP-1 readouts/approvals, defense budget prints, housing affordability metrics.
- Regional nuance beats slogans. Japan = structural change; India = growth with valuation caveats; China = policy-watch.
FAQs
Are markets already pricing a September rate cut?
Futures pricing leans that way ahead of Jackson Hole, but officials may emphasize data-dependence; keep copy flexible until post-speech.
Why do investors keep asking about ETF flows?
Because they now dominate allocation mechanics and price discovery; July’s U.S. flows and YTD records are shaping sector and regional leadership.
Is AI still the key equity driver?
Yes—through 2025, hyperscaler capex guides and supply chain prints are core to earnings revisions across semis, equipment, and utilities.
What about GLP-1 “second-order effects”?
Expect brand and category shifts in food/retail/travel narratives as obesity drugs scale, while pharma headlines (oral GLP-1, new indications) keep the theme prominent.
